Eilon, November 5, 2004

Hello friends

 I spoke with a friend of mine in Adamit and asked him for an assessment of the election. He told me that there was a straw poll amongst three of Adamit's remaining Americans  Two of my friends selected George  Bush while the other chose John Kerry. I was genuinely surprised to hear this. The reason for their choice centers on the general disengagement of the US in Israel's conflict with the Palestinians and the removal of the Ba'athists in Baghdad.

While he is more in the center on domestic issues, he doesn't believe that a conservative agenda will fulfill the goals of its arch-supporters.

My opinion is that unless the administration is side-tracked it will pursue the path of expending the political capital _that it believes_ it amassed with its 2.5% margin of victory. Talk of bipartisanship not withstanding, the legislative way is clear for introducing all kinds of once in a generation type bills.

Up until the very recent, politics in Washington had been determined through the etiquette of divided government. Americans, in a haphazard or unconscious way had contributed to a spirit of bipartisanship by electing one party into the White House and another into one or both chambers of Congress. This was known as divided government [as opposed to divisive government] because the party excluded from the Oval Office never acts like a parliamentary opposition. It required considerable palavering in order to achieve compromise.

This changed during the Clinton administration and really manifested itself in the Gingrich led Congress during President Clinton's 2nd term. While it continued during the first Bush term, we could say that the administration owned its existence to a litigated election in which Vice-President Gore obtained a popular majority. This did not curtail the President in aggressively pursuing his goals. The attack on September 11 only complicated the picture, and created new avenues of support.

It is said that the Bush incumbency is the first in which the Republican Party not only retained congressional strength but increased it since the Coolidge presidency in 1924. [Coolidge succeeded Harding as president after Harding's death]. This is why I believe that the President, who means what he says, will bypass congressional opposition and eschew bipartisan support in favor of those party stalwarts who are hoping to achieve their goals.-Barry

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