Eilon, February 17, 2005

Hello friends

I wrote this political ditty on Feb. 15 in italics and today.

The assassination of the former Lebanese PM Rafiq Hariri has been given prominence. It is seen as something out of the ordinary, even for Lebanon. Pressure seems to be growing for the Syrians to quit the country, and Hariri's popularity was multi-confessional, a rare thing in Lebanon and seen as something that represented a new Lebanon.For instance, few would have been surprised if Walid Jumblatt had been the target of the assassination attempt. Like Hariri, he has been vocal about terminating the Syrian occupation, but he is still seen as an old-time confessional figure [once described as a Druze chieftain].

In Lebanon anyone can be part of a plot. An easily obtainable goal is to destabilize the country in a way that is consistent with the long-term goals of the Syrian occupation. Evidently there has been a significant enough shift in  Lebanese thinking that adversely impacts  the Syrian  position amongst a broad sector of Lebanese opinion.

Some experts believe that Syrian involvement is not a plot hatched in Damascus, but one of local design by her intelligence operatives. Sometimes just such a faux pas is sufficient to change the political landscape, even history. Usually a tactical decision, even a correct one in the field that fails to take in the bigger picture generates the opposite of what it was intended to produce.

It took at least twenty-four hours, and the necessity to deflect attention away from Damascus and her denunciations of terrorism; the announcement of the Lebanese interior minister that the assassination looked like the handiwork of a suicide bomber [a decided departure from the usual Lebanese modus operandi] before a Syrian minister implied that an unnamed factor in the region, behind Kurdish unrest in Syria and political assassination in Jenin, may well be the Beirut bomber.

At least the western media expresses concern that the Hariri assassination reflects Syrian anxiety regarding Hariri's growing popularity. That popularity might have been greater out of office than when he headed his government. Rafiq Hariri is said to have resigned his post because of his dissatisfaction with Syrian intervention, which at the very least, seems to have outlived whatever benefits it claimed to have bestowed in Lebanon. It is recognized in Lebanon that Syria coerced Lebanese parliamentarians into amending the national constitution to accommodate an extension of President Emile Lahoud's period in office. With Hariri out of office, and international pressure slowly building that called for a Syrian withdrawal,  momentum had been built with the former prime minister at its forefront, reiterating a Syrian  exodus,  and  alternately,  a political  option to dilute Syrian influence in Lebanese politics [and in her economy]. The May elections are very important. [Suddenly elections within the Arab world have taken on a dramatic perspective].

The Syrians have come under pressure because of the infiltration of terrorists into Iraq, and her continued support and reliance on efforts by Hezbollah to destabilize the region. [Syria also hopes to aquire Russian long range missiles]She is also encouraged by Iran, who shares a pathological interest in preserving the status quo against Israel, and who is herself besieged over her nuclear program.

I speculate that the Syrians are responsible for the car bombing that killed Rafiq Hariri and sixteen others. According to the press, Hariri's motorcade was equipped to deal with your average roadside attack, but the magnitude of the bombing, and perhaps other forensic details, will suggest a kind of professionalism and intelligence too novel for the average professional terrorist. It is also likely that the Syrians worked through a proxy, to deflect complicity. The reward for this cynical policy was the elimination of one huge political nemesis that successfully challenged their preeminence while reconfirming the need for Syrian troops in order to defend Lebanon from her own propensity for violence. -Barry

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