Eilon, August 9, 2006

Hello friends

There are several debates going on both within the diplomatic and military front in Israel today. There is a push to return to some of the original goals of extending Israeli control some twenty miles north into Lebanon up to and beyond the Litani River. Even at the Litani River full control over rocket launchings is not assured. The cost in casualties and materiel, combatants and noncombatants alike, could be quite heavy, judging by the accumulating costs thus far. The political dividends may actually diminish or become even more difficult to obtain than if the Israelis were to wind down the fighting where the army is currently positioned.

The initial goals of the government were grandiose and unrealistic, but the pressure exerted on the Lebanese government was done to stimulate Lebanon into action. After a month, and Beirut's displeasure with the Franco-American initiative that is currently being debated at the UN, Beirut announced a willingness to deploy 15,000 of her troops. This should satisfy Israel, but now there are problems that were not foreseen in the original demand. After weeks of hard fighting, the Israelis are skeptical about whether the Lebanese army would be serious in disarming Hezbollah; the argument being that if the IDF has failed thus far, then what could be expected of the Lebanese army? However, it has generally been agreed that the Lebanese army is the tool that is required to assert Beirut's authority in the south, but this is best done under the auspices of the international community and a large, powerful international stabilizer force.

The difficulty is in phasing in such a force working in tandem with the Lebanese army. The Israeli army can find itself stuck without any international force, attempting to control a territory with some 100,000 civilians and a renascent insurgency. . It is imperative that there not be a void, nothing to prevent Hezbollah from returning to their former posts and rearming.

I think that if Hezbollah continues to launch rockets into Israel, the army will win its argument, because it has its reputation to uphold. For Hezbollah's part, it has succeeded in ways in which no Arab army has, with the organization still on its feet after a month of fighting.

The chief of the northern command has been kicked upstairs, and this is a result of dissension within the army over the war's prosecution.

Love-Barry