Eilon, Thursday, July 27, 2006
Hello friends
What started out looking like a fairly coherent campaign has wilted during this second week of fighting. The strategy of bombing Lebanese infrastructure and Hezbollah targets located within populated areas looks like gratuitous violence. The number of casualties, including displaced people and refugees fleeing into Syria has caused a humanitarian crisis. That crisis begun by the road bombings, and prowling air strikes of suspicious targets has made the humanitarian mission difficult and dangerous.
The concept of attacking infrastructure to pressure the Lebanese government to act to either confront Hezbollah, or secure the release of the kidnapped soldiers has failed. The Seniora government would rather Israel destroys the nation than risk the challenges of confronting Hezbollah.
The pressure exerted on the Lebanese people, who are mindful of the unlawfulness of Hezbollah, to press their government to act, has not been forthcoming. The extent of the damage, dislocation and rising casualties and ensuing chaos has perversely shifted sympathy to Hezbollah, which presumes to trumpet the cause of Lebanon. I think, living in Beirut, it would be difficult to separate sensible politics from the visceral reaction that the civilian population are being made the victims of Israeli vindictiveness. They are being punished for someone else's crime.
I think Jerusalem began recognizing this, in the face of global criticism, and along with a dwindling of viable targets, began shifting emphasis onto another kind of war.
Despite all the destruction, Israel had not been able to drastically reduce Hezbollah's ability to launch their daily quota of rockets, but attrition may be taking its toll.
The Israelis shifted the emphasis on the deployment of Lebanese troops in southern Lebanon to a robust multi-national force. The international community is eagerly searching for participants. Everyone has an obligation elsewhere. They are "stretched too thin." The Israelis concluded that the Lebanese deployment could not be accomplished without a potent international umbrella.
The Israelis began demarcating the old security zone up to the Litani River, which does not guaranty attacks from longer range missiles. The Litani River would have to include an even deeper security fan to shield Upper Galilee from attack. The Israelis probably need a more powerful force that can seal egress along the Litani and a wide and deeper rim around Upper Galilee without antagonizing the Syrians.
There was considerable criticism about the slow going and costly attacks within the Lebanese villages of Bint Jbail and Maroun al-Ras. It was during these attacks that three rockets were fired from that direction toward Eilon this week. There are many that believe that intelligence misjudged the degree of sophisticated bunkers and tunnels in south Lebanon, many of whom probably are constructed near or under these towns and villages, turning them in a sense into a kind of myriad fortress, without the medieval battlements.
The army asked to expand their operations by employing freshly mobilized reservists. The government averred but are keeping these troops on stand-by, providing them with refresher training. There is concern that a massive push will antagonize Damascus.
There is talk of an even shorter buffer zone of a few kilometers north of the border. I can only guess that the rest of the area would be the provenance of a multi-national force.
The killing of the four UN observers and the circumstances leading to it is a proved formula for international condemnation. The timing of this woeful event before the Rome Summit could not have been worse.
Comparisons of suffering and hardship endured by Israelis and Lebanese are often made and should be made. However, a number of my friends have suggested an equivalence: Nahariya the ghost town, many northerners fleeing south etc. The difference is that in Israel it is a hardship and at least thus far an inconvenience for most, not without its dangers, except for those unlucky enough to have been killed or whose homes and businesses have been damaged. The Lebanese affair is a rapidly expanding humanitarian crisis, and much of the country is devastated. Almost no part of the hinterland has been left untouched south of Tripoli.
In the war of bad intentions Hezbollah is the victor. Every one of those rockets is meant to kill civilians. Israel wins the war of good intentions; surgical strikes that often cause casualties and damage to property. She may err in a precision strike, causing massive damage and death. None of these casualties or destruction of neighboring property is caused intentionally, but this is hardly consoling for all those faced with the brunt of the bombing.
As I have written, I have a very strong visceral yearning for eliminating Hezbollah from the list of our worries. They present a major challenge though, taking in all the constraints and other difficulties, in achieving such a goal.
Love-Barry